What are the negative effects of Brexit?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The term Brexit is used to describe the scenario of\nthe UK’s exit from the European Union. It is an expression created in the 21st\ncentury and comes from the contraction of two English words,\n“British” (British) and “Exit” (exit). This subject was and\nis still debated in the United Kingdom. June 23rd<\/sup> 2016: date of the\nreferendum. The question asked to the population during this vote was:<\/p>\n\n\n\n “Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?”<\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n The result to this question was a small majority (about 52%) YES to the Brexit. The break-up will take place in at least two years from 29 March 2017, when Article 50 of the Treaty of Lisbon was triggered by the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom. This two-year period will be devoted to the negotiations necessary to organize this exit from the United Kingdom of the EU. <\/p>\n\n\n\n Unaware of the threats of economic disaster wrought by international institutions, the British decided to leave the European Union, thus opening up an era of unprecedented uncertainty. The country should is already overtaken by the concrete consequences of its choice.<\/p>\n\n\n\n In the immediate future, it is a mini-financial storm\nthat should blow. Seeing the fifth world economic power leaving the European\nship will indeed have a global impact. The markets have rushed: gold. The price\nof the gold increased at the time of the results of the referendum to its\nhighest level in two years. And this is probably only the beginning.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The United Kingdom will lose the benefits of trade\nagreements between the EU and its partners around the world. Between the exit\nconditions of the EU, the negotiation of new agreements with it and the\nconclusion of trade agreements with countries outside the EU, the UK government\nwarned that a good ten years might be necessary to carry out the various\nnegotiations opened by a Brexit. In short, the change is recorded, but it will\nbe long.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Experts from the British Treasury have studied several\npossible ways of negotiating again treaties. In their scenario in which the\nUnited Kingdom would negotiate a free trade agreement with the EU, every\nBritish household would lose about 4,300\u00a3 per year. From now to 2030, the GDP\nwould be lower by 6% than it would have been in the case of the continuation of\nthe European adventure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The Brexit opened a long period of uncertainty, with\nconsequences for British companies, trade and investment attraction. Trade\nbarriers could be raised during this transition period, with 5.6 billion \u00a3 per\nyear of additional tariffs to be paid for British exporters, according to the\nWTO. Not sure that manufacturing sectors like aerospace, with Airbus and BMW\namong others, appreciate these new tariff barriers. They could pack their bags.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Many companies use the UK as a gateway to Europe.\nHowever, some of them have warned that they will relocate their European\nheadquarters in case of Brexit. The US bank JPMorgan, which employs 16,000 people\nin the UK, warned that it could move 1,000 to 4,000 jobs out of the country as\na result of the Brexit’s victory in the referendum. Other banks could follow.\nIn general, there is a good chance of a decline in Chinese and American\ninvestment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n In its “limited scenario”, the IMF,\nanticipates an unemployment rate of 5.3% in 2017, against 5% today and 6.5%\nwithin two years. According to Pwc, the Brexit would cost around \u20ac 129 billion\nin lost business, which would translate into 950,000 fewer jobs by 2020 and an\nincrease in unemployment between 2 and 3%. The financial sector would be among\nthe most affected. If the City of London banks lose the right to sell their\nfinancial services from the UK to the EU.<\/p>\n\n\n\n This breakdown is expected to drain tax revenues. The\nInstitute for Financial Studies (IFS) forecasts an annual shortfall of between\n20 and 40 billion \u00a3 by 2020. The UK lose its valuable AAA rating that Standard\n& Poor\u2019s has consistently attributed to it for half a century.<\/p>\n\n\n\n It all depends on the negotiated modalities between\nthe UK and the EU member states. And it is therefore not excluded that a visa\nto travel in the country will be necessary as the United Kingdom is not part of\nSchengen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The results of the referendum on the Brexit show a divided country, with\nLondon, Scotland and Northern Ireland wanting to stay, while the north of\nEngland or Wales have largely voted against. Results that could jeopardize the\nintegrity of the United Kingdom. Scotland’s Prime Minister Nicola Sturgeon said\nhis region “sees its future within the EU”, thus opening the door to\na new referendum on independence. In Northern Ireland, Sinn Fein, in favor of\nretention in the EU, called for a referendum on unified Ireland.<\/p>\n\n\n\n If subsequent free trade agreements are not concluded with the EU, France will be among the six countries most affected by the Brexit according to the firm Euler Hermes. French companies could save up to 3.2 billion euros of additional export losses by 2019, in the worst case. <\/p>\n\n\n\n http:\/\/www.bbc.com\/news\/uk-politics-32810887<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n By Alex Hunt & Brian Wheeler, BBC News, 5\nSeptember 2017, \u201cBrexit: All you need to know about the UK leaving the EU\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/world\/2017\/sep\/16\/european-union-frustration-britain-heading-for-brexit-rocks<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n Daniel Boffey in Strasbourg, Saturday 16 September\n2017, \u201cFrustrated EU fears Britain is\n\u2018heading for the Brexit rocks\u2019\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n https:\/\/www.economist.com\/news\/britain\/21727931-negotiations-brussels-turn-more-acrimonious-even-labour-party-softens-its<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n Aug 31st 2017, \u201cDivorce, European-style\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\nFinance<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n
Trading partners<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n
Poorer British<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n
Barriers<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n
Less attractive to investors<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
Unemployment<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
Tax shortfall<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
Visa from EU to UK<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
The integrity of the UK<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
Losses for French companies<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
Sources<\/h2>\n\n\n\n